declared, “The myth of the invincibility of this contrived and decayed regime [Israel's Government] crumbled thanks to the faith and self-belief of Lebanon's Hezbollah.” Syrian President Bashar Assad predicted, “We tell them [Israelis] that after tasting humiliation in the latest battles, your weapons are not going to protect you - not your planes, or missiles or even your nuclear bombs ... The future generations in the Arab world will find a way to defeat IsraWith Hezbollah threatening protests to topple Lebanon’s current government as part of a bid to change the balance of power within the government, Lebanon has been described in news accounts of being in the midst of one of its worst political crises in a generation. A few have even raised the prospect of renewed civil war. Although Lebanon is a country that is at an enhanced risk of sectarian conflict, the odds are against an outbreak of civil war within the next few months or less.

To be sure, Lebanon has many of the characteristics common to states that have experienced such conflict. Its population is mixed in terms of religious affiliation with the existence of two sizable major groups: Muslims (59.7%) and Christians (39%). The Muslim share of the population is increasing. Among the Muslims, 40% are Shia, and that proportion is also growing. These dynamics translate into longer-term pressure for a change in the fundamental sectarian calculation on which Lebanon’s post-civil war government has been organized. On account of the fragile, often uneasy, balance among Lebanon’s sectarian groups, Lebanon’s government is weak. In the recent past, Lebanon experienced a destructive and bloody civil war. The Shia-based Hezbollah group is heavily armed—and more than capable of taking on Lebanon’s relatively weak armed forces—and Shia sections of Lebanon have already suffered significant damage during the recent Israel-Hezbollah fighting, so the Shia have much less to lose in a new civil conflict.

The ongoing political crisis stems from a number of recent developments. First, Hezbollah has been emboldened by what it terms its “Divine Victory” over Israel. Second, its position has been stiffened by the narratives proclaimed by its Iranian and Syrian sponsors. Following the conflict with Israel, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad declared, “The myth of the invincibility of this contrived and decayed regime [Israel's Government] crumbled thanks to the faith and self-belief of Lebanon's Hezbollah.” Syrian President Bashar Assad predicted, “We tell them [Israelis] that after tasting humiliation in the latest battles, your weapons are not going to protect you - not your planes, or missiles or even your nuclear bombs ... The future generations in the Arab world will find a way to defeat Isra

few months or less.

To be sure, Lebanon has many of the characteristics common to states that have experienced such conflict. Its population is mixed in terms of religious affiliation with the existence of two sizable major groups: Muslims (59.7%) and Christians (39%). The Muslim share of the population is increasing. Among the Muslims, 40% are Shia, and that proportion is also growing. These dynamics translate into longer-term pressure for a change in the fundamental sectarian calculation on which Lebanon’s post-civil war government has been organized. On account of the fragile, often uneasy, balance among Lebanon’s sectarian groups, Lebanon’s government is weak. In the recent past, Lebanon experienced a destructive and bloody civil war. The Shia-based Hezbollah group is heavily armed—and more than capable of taking on Lebanon’s relatively weak armed forces—and Shia sections of Lebanon have already suffered significant damage during the recent Israel-Hezbollah fighting, so the Shia have much less to lose in a new civil conflict.

The ongoing political crisis stems from a number of recent developments. First, Hezbollah has been emboldened by what it terms its “Divine Victory” over Israel. Second, its position has been stiffened by the narratives proclaimed by its Iranian and Syrian sponsors. Following the conflict with Israel, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad declared, “The myth of the invincibility of this contrived and decayed regime [Israel's Government] crumbled thanks to the faith and self-belief of Lebanon's Hezbollah.” Syrian President Bashar Assad predicted, “We tell them [Israelis] that after tasting humiliation in the latest battles, your weapons are not going to protect you - not your planes, or missiles or even your nuclear bombs ... The future generations in the Arab world will find a way to defeat Isra

e fundamental sectarian calculation on which Lebanon’s post-civil war government has been organized. On account of the fragile, often uneasy, balance among Lebanon’s sectarian groups, Lebanon’s government is weak. In the recent past, Lebanon experienced a destructive and bloody civil war. The Shia-based Hezbollah group is heavily armed—and more than capable of taking on Lebanon’s relatively weak armed forces—and Shia sections of Lebanon have already suffered significant damage during the recent Israel-Hezbollah fighting, so the Shia have much less to lose in a new civil conflict.

The ongoing political crisis stems from a number of recent developments. First, Hezbollah has been emboldened by what it terms its “Divine Victory” over Israel. Second, its position has been stiffened by the narratives proclaimed by its Iranian and Syrian sponsors. Following the conflict with Israel, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad declared, “The myth of the invincibility of this contrived and decayed regime [Israel's Government] crumbled thanks to the faith and self-belief of Lebanon's Hezbollah.” Syrian President Bashar Assad predicted, “We tell them [Israelis] that after tasting humiliation in the latest battles, your weapons are not going to protect you - not your planes, or missiles or even your nuclear bombs ... The future generations in the Arab world will find a way to defeat Isra

nificant damage during the recent Israel-Hezbollah fighting, so the Shia have much less to lose in a new civil conflict.

The ongoing political crisis stems from a number of recent developments. First, Hezbollah has been emboldened by what it terms its “Divine Victory” over Israel. Second, its position has been stiffened by the narratives proclaimed by its Iranian and Syrian sponsors. Following the conflict with Israel, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad declared, “The myth of the invincibility of this contrived and decayed regime [Israel's Government] crumbled thanks to the faith and self-belief of Lebanon's Hezbollah.” Syrian President Bashar Assad predicted, “We tell them [Israelis] that after tasting humiliation in the latest battles, your weapons are not going to protect you - not your planes, or missiles or even your nuclear bombs ... The future generations in the Arab world will find a way to defeat Isra

declared, “The myth of the invincibility of this contrived and decayed regime [Israel's Government] crumbled thanks to the faith and self-belief of Lebanon's Hezbollah.” Syrian President Bashar Assad predicted, “We tell them [Israelis] that after tasting humiliation in the latest battles, your weapons are not going to protect you - not your planes, or missiles or even your nuclear bombs ... The future generations in the Arab world will find a way to defeat Israel." Third, the establishment of a mixed international-Lebanese tribunal to try those responsible for the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri has the potential to implicate Syria, and that has motivated Lebanon’s pro-Syria elements to try to preclude the creation of this court. A change in the Cabinet that grants Shia factions veto power would accomplish that objective. Fourth, in September, anti-Syria leaders in the Lebanese government called for the disarming of Hezbollah consistent with United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701. Fifth, Lebanon is a pawn in a growing geopolitical struggle unfolding in the Middle East between Iran and the United States. With its difficulties in Iraq, the United States is perceived by Iran, Syria, and their allies in Lebanon, as a fading power that increasingly lacks diplomatic and military credibility. Hence, the stage was set for a political confrontation against a Lebanese government that still leans toward the United States and the West.

Recent events in Lebanon suggest that the overall risk of sectarian conflict is now rising. On October 31, 2006, Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah demanded that the “March 14 Forces”—Lebanese political leaders who were instrumental in organizing a protest to demand that Syria withdraw its forces from Lebanon—agree to a national unity government by November 13. Such a government would mean a change in its current balance of power, a Shia veto over major decisions, and an end to Prime Minister Fouad Siniora’s tenure. Furthermore, Nasrallah threatened that if his ultimatum were ignored, “we will work to topple the government and establish an interim government, and then we will call for early parliamentary elections” and vowed “we will [no longer] hold back.” In his call for a “national unity government,” Nasrallah wa